Author Dr. Naresh Subba is an independent researcher, he completed his PhD from Centre for East Asian Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi
As we all know the current crisis unfolding in West Asia is not a new crisis that happened over night. We all know this war is waging by the US and Israel for many reason, but let me tell there are concerns for the India and other Asian countries as well. Specially our, approach towards West Asia has been transform over the decade and it is something worrying for a careful observer in the India’s foreign policy pundits. And, as the war unfold, it will have a regional and global impact when it comes to this war in the region, which remain critical to the energy security across the Asian continent.
First of all, we need to understand why this war was broke-out despite having dialogue a few days ago, which was moderated by the Oman. There are many other way to look into this, but one obvious reason is that the US want’s to flex its muscle under the Trump’s administration (however the US Congress and its citizens are against it) and its closer allies Israel want to eliminate its threat in its neighbourhood. In a common language, the can be understood as “the US wants to maintain its global hegemony and Israel wants to eliminate its threat.”However, there are other concern, when Iran fire its retaliatory missile against Israel and the US military base in the gulf region such as Bharain, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qater, and UAE and. The involvement of Hezbollah (Iran proxies in Libya) firing its missile against Israel and Iran also firing its missiles toward Cyprus (a British military base) and the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer allowing to use their base for defense purpose to the US and its allies. All this instances show an urgency to the international community, because the war is becoming regional and might go beyond.
Secondly, we also need to understand India’s stand in this war, because Iran was our major partner in the West Asia that we have invested heavily in the Chabahar port for a long time. This port is critical to India’s energy security as we are heavily dependent on our energy import from the Gulf and West Asian region. However, the recent visit made by the prime minister Modi to Israel two days before the war occurred, and his recent trade deal with the US shows that our stand has sliding towards the US and its allies. On 2 March, the prime minister Modi dialed his phone to the head of Bahrain and Saudi to condemn the attack on them and there was no official response to the US and Israelis attack on Iran. We are also signing several economic agreement to countries and forums like the EU, the UK and now with Canada. All these shows that India’s stands has been sliding towards West. However, earlier India’s foreign policy approach used to have its own strategic autonomy by maintainga balanced view towards Iran and the US, and Israel and Palestine. This drifting one-sided policy is not good for India’s energy security in the long run.
Thirdly, there will be economic cost, especially to the Asian region. Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the critical chock point for all the cartels coming from the gulf region. Because, Asian countries particularly countries like India, China, Japan and other Asian economies are heavily dependent on the energy security from these seal lanes, and any disturbance on the Strait of Hormuz will cost heavily to these economies. Therefore, India being of the influential middle power in the Asia has bigger responsibility to hold a dialogue between the conflicting parties as India maintain cordial relations to both the parties. In this way, India can gain a better leverage amongst the international community in general andAsian counterparts in particular.
Last but not the least (in a hypothetical situation) the war could trigger further, if the other countries like the Russia, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and North Korea joins hands with Iran either directly or indirectly. This will probably lead to the World War III as many analyst felt the fear of the current scenario. These countries openly criticized the US and Israel for the non-provocation first pre-emptive strike to a sovereign countries, highlighting the violation of international law. On 3 March, the Russian Federation and China openly condemn the US and Israel in the United Nation Security Council (UNSC) and showing their grave concern that this war will take nowhere, but losses of innocent life in both the sides. One of the interesting observation made by Col. Douglas Macgregor, a former advisor to secretary of defence, argued that this war is wage to pleas the Zionist ambition in the Middle East as he understood and the first call was made by the Israeli counterpart. He further mentioned that there no possibility of regime change until and unless they go to the ground operation. The air strike will not sufficient to change the regime in Iran unlike the other gulf countries in the West Asia. On the other hand, Iran has already prepared to absorb this kind shock as they did previous year as well. So, in the longer run the US and Israel will equally suffer if the war prolonged for a months.
Therefore, the ongoing war in West Asia is equally concerning to the whole international community. The major problem lies in both the US and Israel national interest to have the regional dominance in West Asia. Iran being one of the only country who don’t bow down in front of the United States is one reason that they face this offensive attack from the US. Another important reason for this crisis is due the continuous rise of ultra-right wing leaders in the Western democracies as well, because they are also equally responsible as they failed to condemn such act whether be it Venezuela or Iran. So, this is a high time for the like-minded countries across the world to introspect their collective efforts to maintain international peace and security. In this context, there are various multilateral and minilateralorganization across the region that could play a vital role to resolve these kind of crisis in West Asia.
